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| Paper: |
Towards a Statistical Framework for HWO Biosignature Assessment |
| Monograph: |
11, HWO25 Proceedings Part II: Mission Framework, Technology, and Broader Contributions |
| Page: |
103 |
| Authors: |
Victoria Meadows, Heather Graham, Chris Kempes, Samuel McCarty, Alexandra Papesh, Andrew Lincowski, Megan Gialluca, Tyler Robinson, Josh Krissansen-Totton, and Jacob Lustig-Yaeger |
| DOI: |
10.26624/BEFZ2554 |
| Abstract: |
With its planned capability to study a suite of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres, HWO will advance key areas of astrobiology, including the search for life on exoplanets. However, a broad sweep of foundational science is still needed to understand how to search for, recognize and interpret signs of life. Since potential biosignatures in the spectra of distant exoplanets will likely be ambiguous, we will need frameworks that combine information on the observed stellar and planetary environment with measurements of potential biosignatures, to assess the likelihood that a planet (or suite of planets) are inhabited. To do this we will need frameworks to consolidate uncertainties in measured phenomena and their interpretation, and to statistically assess two parallel hypotheses: whether the observed phenomena are more likely to be due to abiotic planetary processes, or whether life could feasibly produce the observed phenomenon, given the planetary environment. Such a framework could prove useful throughout the lifecycle of the HWO mission: from conceptualization of telescope and instruments that ensure that the key measurements for biosignature assessment can be obtained, through operations and scientific analysis to identify data and assessments needed to determine the certainty of what has (or has not) been detected. Here we describe the utility of the statistical framework for stages of HWO development, and ongoing efforts by the Virtual Planetary Laboratory team to advance the community-developed conceptual framework – to couple simulated data, retrieval models, and a Support Vector Machine to implement the first statistical treatment of biosignature assessment. This work will inform HWO development, and help transform anomaly detection into planetary biosignature interpretation. |
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