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| Paper: |
Forecasting Solar Activity and Cycle 23 Outlook |
| Volume: |
154, Cool Stars, Stellar Systems and the Sun: Tenth Cambridge Workshop |
| Page: |
1315 |
| Authors: |
Schatten, Kenneth |
| Abstract: |
Solar activity, although virtually impossible to forecast a month in advance, has succumbed to scientific methods on long time scales, much as climate or seasonal weather predictions are simpler than weekly weather forecasting. Moderately accurate solar activity forecasts on decadal time scales now seems possible. The methods that work fall into a class of prediction techniques called ``precursor methods,'' and although other techniques, such as Fourier analyses do not appear to work, the precursor methods have worked for two solar cycles! We will discuss 1) the historical origin for precursor indices; 2) the physical basis for the solar and geomagnetic precursor techniques and; 3) how big the next cycle will be. Based upon a NASA supported, NOAA SEC panel of experts findings, the next solar cycle would peak in early 2000 at a sunspot number near 160 +/- 30. The SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which is purely a solar indicator provides a consistent, but mildly smaller value of 130 +/- 30 for sunspot number. adsportable.pl: cannot read file schattk1/schattk1.tex (skipped) |
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