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| Paper: |
Testing Origin-of-Life Theories with the Habitable Worlds Observatory |
| Monograph: |
10, HWO25 Proceedings Part I: Community Science Case Development Documents |
| Page: |
305 |
| Authors: |
Sukrit Ranjan; Martin Schlecker; Nicholas Wogan; Michael Won |
| DOI: |
10.26624/UREV6943 |
| Abstract: |
The Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) aims to telescopically constrain the frequency and abundance
of biospheres in the solar neighborhood. Origin-of-life theories vary in their predictions for the environmental
requirements and the expected frequency of abiogenesis, meaning that constraints on the frequency and
distribution of life on exoplanets from HWO can in principle directly test theories of abiogenesis. We
categorize origin-of-life theories into three broad classes and discuss how HWO could potentially test them.
Nondetection of biology on a large sample of habitable planets would provide prior-independent evidence
in favor of the class of abiogenesis theory which holds that the origin of life is contingent, vanishingly
unlikely event, whereas detection of event a single biosphere would falsify this class of theories. Correlations
of candidate biospheres with planetary parameters such as UV irradiation, the presence of oceans, and the
presence of continents can test specific origin-of-life theories. Simulated surveys with Bayesian analysis are
required to quantify the ability of HWO to execute this science case. However, a clear theme from the limited
such studies that have already been conducted is the need for large sample sizes (≳50 planets characterized)
to provide meaningful constraints on abiogenesis theories, favoring a larger design sample for HWO. |
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