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Paper: On Flare and CME Predictability Based on Sunspot Group Evolution
Volume: 504, Coimbra Solar Physics Meeting: Ground-based Solar Observations in the Space Instrumentation Era
Page: 43
Authors: Korsós, M. B.; Ruderman, M. S.
Abstract: We propose to apply the weighted horizontal magnetic gradient (WGM), introduced in Korsós et al. (2015), for analysing the pre-flare and pre-CME behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs) using the SDO/HMI-Debrecen Data catalogue. To demonstrate the power of investigative capabilities of the WGM method in terms of flare/CME eruptions, we show the results of studying three typical active regions, namely, AR11818, AR12017 and AR11495. The choice of ARs represent typical cases of flaring with a fast CME, flare eruption without a CME and non-flaring cases, respectively. AR11818 produced an M1.4 energetic flare with a fast "halo" CME (vlinear=1202 km/s) while in AR12017 occurred an X1.0 flare without a CME. The AR11495 is a good example for non-flaring ARs. The value and temporal variation of WGM is found to possess potentially important diagnostic information about the intensity of expected flares. However, this test turns out not only to provide information about the intensity of expected flares but may also show whether a flare will occur with/without a fast CME.
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